Planning for 2026: Navigating Uncertainty and Change

A practical, evidence-based guide to anticipating change, reducing risk, and turning uncertainty into advantage.

Executive summary

2026 won’t be “just another year.” It sits at a junction where economic normalization (but fragile growth), accelerating climate impacts, fast-moving AI adoption, and tightening regulation begin to collide inside everyday decisions: what to build, buy, hire, ship, insure, and automate.

The headline signals are already visible:

• Global growth is expected to be moderate, not booming—IMF projects ~3.1% global growth in 2026. IMF
• Climate conditions are pushing into new territory: Copernicus data suggests 2023–2025 may average above 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels, making resilience planning less optional and more operational. climate.copernicus.eu+1
• AI is no longer a pilot project: Stanford’s AI Index reports 78% of organizations used AI in 2024 (up from 55% the year before), and private investment remains enormous. hai.stanford.edu+1
• Europe’s regulatory “wave” hits real operations:
  • CBAM moves into its definitive regime from 2026, shifting carbon accounting from reporting to financial consequence. Taxation and Customs Union
  • The EU AI Act continues its staged rollout; key obligations expand in 2026 (with broader application dates in mid-2026 and beyond). AI Act Service Desk+1
  • The revised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) requires Member States to transpose by 29 May 2026, shaping renovation pipelines, building codes, and investment priorities. REHVA
• On the “calendar” side, 2026 is also a major events year (e.g., Milano Cortina Winter Olympics (Feb 6–22) and FIFA World Cup (Jun 11–Jul 19)), which matters for infrastructure, mobility, hospitality, and security planning. Olympics+1

This article gives you a planning framework and sector-specific playbooks—not predictions. The goal is to help you build plans that stay useful even when reality deviates from forecasts.

---

1) Why “planning for 2026” is different from guessing the future

Most planning fails for a simple reason: we treat uncertainty like a gap in knowledge rather than a feature of complex systems.

Forecasts are fragile; capabilities are durable

A forecast is a number. A capability is a system:

• supply-chain visibility
• resilient cashflow
• cyber hygiene
• energy flexibility
• regulatory readiness
• decision speed with governance

A useful 2026 plan prioritizes capabilities that pay off across multiple plausible futures, not only one “base case.”

The 2026 planning paradox

The paradox is that the closer you get to 2026, the more information you have—but the less time you have to act. That’s why a good approach is front-loaded preparation with mid-course correction, not a single annual planning ritual.

section Policy & Regulation
🧾 CBAM definitive regime begins (EU) :milestone, cbam, 2026-01-01, 0d
🏢 EPBD transposition deadline (EU) :milestone, epbd, 2026-05-29, 0d
🤖 EU AI Act — major obligations & enforcement start :milestone, aiact, 2026-08-02, 0d

section Major Global Events
🥇 Milano Cortina Olympics :olympics, 2026-02-06, 2026-02-22
♿ Milano Cortina Paralympics :para, 2026-03-06, 2026-03-15
⚽ FIFA World Cup 2026 :wc, 2026-06-11, 2026-07-19
🌍 COP31 (Antalya) :cop, 2026-11-09, 2026-11-20

---

2) Historical context: how societies learned to plan for uncertain years

To plan well for 2026, it helps to understand where modern planning methods came from—and why they evolved.

2.1 Early planning: seasons, survival, and statecraft

The oldest planning tools were agricultural calendars and storage strategies: anticipate scarcity, smooth risk, and protect the community. Over time, rulers adopted resource planning for taxation, defense, and infrastructure.

2.2 Industrial-era planning: efficiency and predictability

The industrial revolution elevated planning into a discipline: production schedules, inventory management, and standardized work. The worldview was largely linear: if you model inputs, you can manage outputs.

2.3 The shock era: scenario planning is born

In the 20th century, shocks broke linear assumptions: oil crises, wars, stagflation, and technological discontinuities. Corporations and governments developed scenario planning to manage “unknown unknowns,” not just optimize known variables. The point of scenarios wasn’t to pick the “right” future—it was to become less surprised.

2.4 The systems era: climate, cyber, and AI

By the 21st century, the most destabilizing forces (climate risk, cyber risk, disinformation, supply shocks) behaved like networks, not levers. Institutions like the World Economic Forum increasingly frame risk as interconnected rather than isolated. World Economic Forum+1

So the modern planning task isn’t “predict 2026.” It’s “design an organization (or life) that can function across a wide range of 2026 conditions.”

---

3) The 2026 landscape: what’s already in motion

Think of 2026 as a convergence year. Several long arcs (climate, digitization, demographic pressures, geopolitics) and shorter cycles (rates, elections, policy timelines) overlap.

3.1 Economic conditions: modest growth, persistent fragility

The world is not entering 2026 from a clean slate. Major institutions expect growth that is positive but not robust:

• The IMF projects global growth around 3.1% in 2026 (with advanced economies around ~1.5% and emerging markets higher). IMF+1
• The OECD similarly projects global growth easing to ~2.9% in 2026, with the U.S. and euro area at lower growth rates than global averages. OECD+1

Planning implication: 2026 is unlikely to be a universal boom year. Your plan should assume:

• tighter competition for demand
• careful capital allocation
• productivity pressure
• selective rather than broad-based investment

3.2 Climate reality: risk is no longer “tail”—it’s operating context

Copernicus reporting indicates 2025 is set to be among the hottest years on record, and that the three-year average (2023–2025) is likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. climate.copernicus.eu+2climate.copernicus.eu+2

Planning implication: treat climate as:

• a cost driver (insurance, cooling, downtime, supply disruption)
• a design constraint (materials, building standards, site selection)
• a policy accelerator (carbon pricing, disclosure, border adjustments)

In other words: climate risk moves from “ESG reporting” into “how we keep operating.”

3.3 Technology: AI becomes infrastructure—and regulation catches up

Adoption is accelerating

Stanford’s AI Index 2025 reports:

• 78% of organizations reported using AI in 2024, up from 55% the year before. hai.stanford.edu+1
• Generative AI private investment reached $33.9B globally in 2024 (per the same report). hai.stanford.edu+1

Meanwhile, cyber authorities are warning about attackers using AI branding and supply chains as delivery vectors (e.g., malware disguised as AI installers). enisa.europa.eu

2026 will amplify “AI governance” needs

The EU AI Act is rolling out in stages, with more requirements becoming applicable over time; 2026 is part of that ramp. AI Act Service Desk+1
Even outside the EU, many organizations will align to “best available” risk frameworks like NIST’s AI Risk Management Framework to structure controls, audits, and accountability. NIST

Planning implication: treat AI less like a tool and more like a regulated capability:

• data readiness + model governance
• procurement standards for AI vendors
• human oversight + monitoring
• incident response for model failures and misuse

3.4 Regulation and compliance: Europe is setting operational tempo

Even if you’re not based in Europe, European rules increasingly shape global supply chains.

CBAM goes from reporting to money

The European Commission states CBAM will apply in its definitive regime from 2026, following a transitional phase from 2023–2025. Taxation and Customs Union

Planning implication: if your goods touch the EU in covered categories, you need:

• emissions data pipelines
• supplier engagement and verification
• cost modeling and contract updates
• finance + customs coordination

Buildings: EPBD transposition deadline in 2026

The revised EPBD entered into force in 2024; industry sources summarizing the directive indicate Member States must transpose by 29 May 2026. REHVA+1

Planning implication: 2026 affects:

• renovation schedules and permitting
• investment in heat pumps / electrification / envelope improvements
• property valuation (stranded asset risk vs. “future-ready” premium)

Corporate sustainability reporting: CSRD is shifting—plan for volatility

The European Commission notes the first companies under CSRD apply the rules for FY2024 (reports in 2025). It also describes policy actions including a “stop-the-clock” directive affecting timing for later waves and an omnibus discussion on scope and burden reduction. Finance

Planning implication: don’t bet on a single compliance calendar. Build:

• modular reporting systems
• auditable data collection
• double materiality capability
• value-chain engagement (because even if you’re out of scope, your customers may not be)

3.5 The “events calendar”: 2026 will stress logistics and security systems

Large events create localized demand spikes, infrastructure acceleration, and security pressure:

• Milano Cortina 2026: Olympics Feb 6–22, Paralympics Mar 6–15. Olympics
• FIFA World Cup 2026: Jun 11–Jul 19, hosted across Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. FIFA+1

Planning implication: for sectors like mobility, construction, hospitality, telecom, public safety, and cyber, these events are stress tests. Even if you’re not in host cities, they can affect:

• travel patterns
• temporary labor markets
• supply allocation and pricing
• cybersecurity posture (high-visibility targets)

3.6 Climate diplomacy: COP31 is in 2026

COP31 is expected in Türkiye (Antalya) in 2026, with negotiation leadership arrangements discussed publicly by policy groups. E3G

Planning implication: anticipate continued policy debate around:

• carbon pricing alignment
• climate finance
• adaptation requirements
• industry decarbonization pathways

---

4) Practical applications: how to plan for 2026 in the real world

This section translates macro signals into operational decisions.

4.1 A universal planning model: “BASE + OPTIONS + SHIELDS”

A strong 2026 plan usually has three layers:

1. BASE (the no-regrets plan)
   Actions that pay off in almost any scenario:

• improve cash conversion cycles
• reduce single points of failure
• secure identity and access management
• strengthen supplier transparency
• build internal data quality

2. OPTIONS (strategic flexibility)
   Small investments that create the right—but not obligation—to move:

• pilot new markets
• dual-source critical inputs
• keep permitting ready for capex
• negotiate optional capacity with partners

3. SHIELDS (risk controls and resilience)
   Mechanisms that reduce downside:

• hedges (energy, FX, freight) where appropriate
• incident response playbooks (cyber, PR, safety)
• insurance review + parametric options
• contractual risk-sharing (carbon, delays)

4.2 Case study: an industrial importer facing CBAM in 2026

Scenario: A manufacturer imports steel or aluminum components into the EU.

What changes in 2026: CBAM shifts into its definitive regime (financial obligations begin). Taxation and Customs Union

A practical 2026 plan:

• Map exposure: which SKUs fall under CBAM categories; which routes enter the EU.
• Build an emissions ledger: supplier-specific embedded emissions data, with an auditable trail.
• Renegotiate contracts: define who bears carbon cost volatility; set data-sharing clauses.
• Stress-test pricing: run scenarios with high/medium/low carbon price assumptions.
• Operationalize governance: finance + sustainability + customs + procurement meet monthly.

Watch-outs:

• “Default values” may be punitive compared to verified supplier data.
• Supply-chain transparency becomes a competitive asset, not just compliance.

4.3 Case study: a property owner preparing for EPBD-driven market shifts

Scenario: A mixed portfolio owner (office + residential) across EU markets.

What changes by 2026: EPBD transposition into national law by May 2026 sets national rules that can reshape renovation requirements and market expectations. REHVA+1

A practical 2026 plan:

• Portfolio diagnosis: energy performance, heating system types, envelope conditions, and upgrade cost curves.
• Renovation pipeline: prioritize assets where upgrades unlock rent stability, occupancy, or refinancing.
• Electrification strategy: heat pump readiness, grid constraints, thermal storage options.
• Embodied carbon lens: avoid “green upgrades” with high hidden carbon or supply risk.
• Tenant alignment: lease structures that reward efficiency upgrades (split incentive solutions).

Value creation angle:
Buildings that become “future-ready” can outperform on operating cost stability and regulatory risk—especially in energy price volatility environments.

4.4 Case study: a CIO making AI real (and safe) for 2026

Scenario: A mid-size enterprise wants AI to improve productivity and customer experience.

Signals: AI adoption is widespread (78% of orgs used AI in 2024), and security agencies note evolving threat patterns around AI tooling and supply chains. hai.stanford.edu+1

A practical 2026 plan:

• Pick 3–5 “value wedges”: customer support, document workflow, demand forecasting, code assistance, fraud detection.
• Establish AI governance: align to risk frameworks (e.g., NIST AI RMF) to structure roles, controls, and accountability. NIST
• Data readiness program: classification, access control, retention, sensitive-data redaction.
• Model procurement standards: vendor transparency, security posture, monitoring, and exit strategy.
• Human-in-the-loop: define where AI can act autonomously and where it must advise only.
• Cyber hardening: assume prompt injection, credential theft, and “fake AI tool” malware are part of the threat model. enisa.europa.eu

Strategic note: Gartner’s 2026 tech trends emphasize multiagent systems, digital provenance, and preemptive cybersecurity—useful markers for where enterprise architectures are heading. gartner.com

4.5 Case study: a city or municipality planning 2026 resilience and service delivery

Scenario: A city is facing heat, flooding, and infrastructure maintenance backlog.

Signals: Climate extremes and temperature milestones are increasingly documented, indicating higher likelihood of disruptive events. Reuters+1

A practical 2026 plan:

• Heat action plan: cooling centers, vulnerable population mapping, building retrofits for passive survivability.
• Stormwater upgrades: nature-based solutions + critical asset protection.
• Grid and mobility coordination: EV infrastructure, transit resilience, backup power for key services.
• Procurement modernization: require data transparency (materials, embodied carbon, lifecycle cost).
• Community trust: clear risk communication and preparedness drills.

---

5) A 2026 planning toolkit you can actually use

Here’s a compact toolkit that scales—from individual planning to board-level strategy.

5.1 Horizon scanning (2 hours/month)

Create a “signal board” across categories:

• policy/regulation (e.g., CBAM, AI Act, EPBD, reporting rules)
• macro (rates, inflation, growth)
• climate (heat, water, storms)
• tech (AI capability shifts, cyber threats)
• geopolitics/supply chains

The goal isn’t volume; it’s pattern recognition.

5.2 Scenario set (4 scenarios, not 40)

Build four 2026 scenarios using two critical uncertainties (for example):

• “growth” (low vs. moderate)
• “constraint” (high regulation/supply shocks vs. smoother trade)

Then test decisions against all four.

5.3 Decision gates

For big initiatives, define gates:

• Gate 1: proof of value
• Gate 2: governance + compliance readiness
• Gate 3: scale and integration
• Gate 4: optimization + audit

This keeps you from scaling fragile pilots.

5.4 Metrics that matter in 2026

Choose metrics tied to resilience:

• supplier concentration risk
• time-to-detect / time-to-recover (cyber + ops)
• energy intensity and flexibility
• regulatory readiness milestones
• cash conversion cycle
• workforce skills coverage (AI, data, compliance)

---

6) Future implications: what 2026 sets up for 2027–2030

Planning for 2026 is also planning for the runway beyond it.

6.1 Carbon becomes a trade variable, not just a corporate value

With CBAM moving into its definitive regime in 2026, carbon accounting starts behaving like a border cost. Taxation and Customs Union
That tends to drive:

• supplier reshoring/nearshoring decisions
• low-carbon material demand (steel, cement alternatives)
• product redesign for lower embedded emissions
• new verification and assurance markets

6.2 The built environment enters a “renovation decade”

EPBD transposition deadlines push national rules into force; markets often anticipate this by repricing risk earlier than policymakers expect. REHVA+1
Expect:

• more stringent performance expectations
• financing advantages for high-performance upgrades
• greater attention to whole-life carbon (operational + embodied)

6.3 AI systems become multiagent and more autonomous—raising the bar for trust

Gartner’s 2026 trends highlight multiagent systems and digital provenance—signals that AI is shifting from “single assistant” tools into orchestrated systems that act across workflows. gartner.com+1
That implies:

• stronger audit trails
• provenance and content authenticity controls
• deeper governance in procurement and deployment
• new failure modes (and new value)

6.4 Risk interconnection intensifies

Global risk assessments emphasize the way misinformation, conflict, social polarization, and technology risks reinforce each other. reports.weforum.org+1
So your 2026 plan should assume:

• shocks will be “compound” (e.g., cyber incident during extreme weather)
• response capacity matters as much as prevention
• trust and communication are operational assets

---

Conclusion: the point isn’t certainty—it’s readiness

Planning for 2026 is not about predicting one future. It’s about building readiness in a world where economics remain fragile, climate risk is operational, AI is turning into infrastructure, and regulation is reshaping cross-border trade and the built environment.

If you do only three things, do these:

1. Convert uncertainty into scenarios and test your big decisions against them.
2. Build durable capabilities: data quality, governance, resilience, and supplier transparency.
3. Treat 2026 as a convergence year: align strategy, compliance, and operations early—because the calendar doesn’t wait for internal readiness.

The organizations (and individuals) that win in 2026 won’t be the ones with the boldest predictions. They’ll be the ones with the fastest learning loops and the strongest foundations.

---

References (APA style)

• Copernicus Climate Change Service. (2025, November–December). Monthly climate bulletins / 2025 temperature tracking updates. climate.copernicus.eu+1
• European Commission. (n.d.). Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Taxation and Customs Union
• European Commission. (2025). Corporate sustainability reporting (CSRD) – policy timeline and implementation notes. Finance
• European Commission. (2025). Timeline for the implementation of the EU AI Act. AI Act Service Desk
• International Monetary Fund. (2025). World Economic Outlook: October 2025. IMF
• OECD. (2025). OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2. OECD+1
• Olympics.com. (n.d.). Milano Cortina 2026 schedule overview. Olympics
• REHVA. (n.d.). Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) – transposition deadline summary. REHVA
• Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI. (2025). AI Index Report 2025. hai.stanford.edu+1
• ENISA. (2025). ENISA Threat Landscape 2025. enisa.europa.eu
• FIFA. (2025). FIFA World Cup 2026 – host cities/dates information. FIFA
• World Economic Forum. (2025). Global Risks Report 2025. World Economic Forum+1
• E3G. (2025). COP31 hosts announcement (Türkiye/Antalya). E3G

---